It looks like Friday the 13th is living up to its moniker as being an unlucky date. In its 11 a.m. update on Friday, Sept. 13, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Humberto is highly likely to form in the next 24 hours as it descends upon the Bahamas on before moving north to the Sunshine State.
“Global models develop the system and guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period," forecasters said in the 11 a.m. advisory. “By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic well southeast of the coast of the Carolinas.”
The Center said conditions are favorable — 90 percent, in fact, for the disturbance to achieve tropical storm status by Saturday, Sept. 14, which would earn it the name Humberto.
The disturbance is moving northwest at 1 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and is expected to pick up speed. However, with a poorly defined circulation center, computer models are having a hard time predicting the storm’s track beyond 48 to 72 hours. The longer it stays over water, the better the chance it has to intensify into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said.
“The system is barely moving, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today,” NHC forecasters said. “On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or near the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.”
Forecasters warn that — though this system "is not a Dorian" — we are still in the heart of hurricane season. People should be aware, but not alarmed, and stay tuned for NHC updates as the disturbance's circulation center becomes more defined.